Lower operating costs, more efficient fuel burn, and quieter communities coupled with improvements in technology are driving NASA’s vision for electrified propulsion that will power subsonic commercial aircraft. Integrated electrified aircraft propulsion concepts have seen rapid advancements in propulsion systems and battery technology in recent years. NASA supports analyses of technologies that have the potential to enhance the fuel efficiency and economic performance of subsonic transport with opportunities to transition to alternative propulsion and energy.

To help evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the potential transition, researchers at NASA’s Glenn Research Center asked U.S. DOT Volpe Center economists to measure and quantify the potential market and competitiveness of the Hybrid Electric Turboprop Commercial Freighter (HETCOF) concept.

The U.S. DOT Volpe Center conducted detailed research using publicly available data from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics to determine the potential market size for the concept aircraft and develop an in-house lifecycle cost model for freighter aircraft. The analyses incorporated core operational and ownership cost components as a function of aircraft age and various utilization rates. The lifecycle cost model allowed the team to determine how improvements could balance out potential increases in either capital or maintenance costs relative to conventional aircraft.

The team found the concept aircraft could have broad market coverage, accounting for up to 73 percent of the existing mid-sized air cargo market with full electric operations up to 750 miles. The cost-effectiveness analysis of operating and capital costs showed potential for market competitiveness but required additional energy and acquisition cost savings from the concept aircraft.

Additional findings from the U.S. DOT Volpe Center team’s analysis demonstrated that higher rates of aircraft utilization were key to lowering overall costs and increasing competitiveness. Specifically, raising the annual operations of the concept aircraft from 700 to 1,100 improved the overall benefit from lower fuel burn rates, allowing for the potential capital cost of the aircraft to increase from roughly 25 percent to 75 percent and still breakeven.

The completed market study was presented in two separate papers at the annual American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics SciTech Forum in 2025 and continues to evolve with additional research for NASA, including a recent paper at the Electric Aircraft Technologies Symposium in 2025.

The graph above details the potential range of cost changes for the HETCOF concept to be cost effective, assuming a 40 percent fuel reduction and an operational range of 750 miles, while maintaining 700 operations per year. The HETCOF concept could increase capital costs by 25 percent or maintenance costs by 53 percent, and still breakeven in terms of total operating costs.

About the U.S. DOT Volpe Center

Since 1970, the U.S. DOT Volpe Center has advanced transportation innovation for the public good, providing multimodal applied research, collaborating with federal, state, and industry partners, and multidisciplinary technical leadership and expertise to solve complex transportation challenges. Learn more at www.volpe.dot.gov.