Volpe Center Year in Review 2008
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Environmental and Energy Systems
The Environmental and Energy Systems COI provides technical and analytical support for decision-making at all levels of government and industry on (1) transportation-related environmental and energy policies, including those pertaining to climate variability, air, noise, environmental compliance, engineering and remediation, and hazardous materials; (2) transportation's role in achieving energy independence, both as a consumer of energy and as the critical element in the energy-supply chain; and (3) research and development capabilities supporting all modes of transportation and other COIs within the Volpe Center.
Aviation Environmental Design Tool
In its 2004 Report to Congress on "Aviation and the Environment," the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) recommended that "The Nation should develop more effective metrics and tools to assess and communicate aviation's environmental effects... The tools should enable integrated environmental and economic cost/benefit analysis ..." As a consequence of this recommendation, FAA launched a multiyear effort, which will result in the development of an entirely new suite of tools, including the Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT).
The Volpe Center leads the management, design, development and integration of AEDT, which will replace existing FAA Office of Environment and Energy (AEE) aviation noise, emissions, and air dispersion computer-modeling tools. It is anticipated that this effort will lead to the development of an unprecedented suite of tools for the establishment of international environmental policy, to be used by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) Committee for Aviation Environmental Protection (CAEP). It will also support development of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) and associated environmental policy changes in the United States.
During FY 2008, as part of AEDT, the Volpe Center developed a new method to compute fuel burn for Boeing aircraft using the Boeing Climb-Out Program (BCOP). This method improves fuel-burn modeling in the terminal area, as compared with actual airline-reported fuel-burn data. Work has begun to expand the aircraft fleet coverage of the database and implement the new terminal area fuel-burn method into AEDT for use in future FAA, NextGen, Atlantic Interoperability Initiative to Reduce Emissions (AIRE), and CAEP analyses.
Also during FY 2008, FAA set the goal of identifying and analyzing uncertainties of source-data algorithms and assumptions for each core computational AEDT module, including the Aircraft Acoustics, Aircraft Emissions, Aircraft Performance, Ground Emissions, and Fleet and Operations modules. The process used in the first round of assessment will serve as a template for future module-level assessments, with the ultimate goal of evaluating the entire integrated system. (Sponsored by DOT/FAA)
NextGen Alternative Aviation Fuel Development
By 2025, U.S. air traffic is predicted to more than double. The current air traffic control system will not be able to manage this growth. NextGen, which uses 21st-century technologies to ensure that future safety, capacity, and environmental needs are met, represents a transformation of the National Airspace System (NAS) and the national system of airports. NextGen will be realized through coordinated efforts by the Departments of Defense, Homeland Security, and Commerce, as well as U.S. DOT, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy. The NextGen vision was developed by the Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO), which facilitates interagency cooperation. A major component of FAA's NextGen implementation plan is the rapid advancement of technologies that will mitigate the impact of aviation on the environment, including the development of alternative aviation fuels.
During FY 2008, as part of NextGen, the Volpe Center supported two main alternative aviation fuel initiatives: the Commercial Aviation Alternative Fuels Initiative (CAAFI) and the Alternative Aviation Fuel X PRIZE Roadmap. CAAFI promotes the development of alternative fuel options that offer equivalent levels of safety and compare favorably with petroleumbased jet fuel in relation to cost and environmental impact. Its goal is to enhance the security of the energy supply. The Volpe Center provided CAAFI with alternative aviation fuel expertise and extensive logistics support.
The Volpe Center also led efforts to bring the X PRIZE model of innovative technology development to the area of alternative aviation fuels by establishing a working relationship with the X PRIZE Foundation of Santa Monica, California, that will culminate in the Alternative Aviation Fuel/PRIZE Roadmap. This will offer substantial financial and public relations incentives to industry and academic participants to develop a viable, environmentally friendly alternative to aviation fossil fuel. (Sponsored by DOT/FAA)
Transportation-Related Noise Measurement and Modeling for National Parks
The 1987 National Parks Overflight Act requires that FAA and the National Park Service (NPS) work together to achieve "substantial restoration of the natural quiet" in Grand Canyon National Park. In 2000, the National Parks Air Tour Management Act further directed the two agencies to develop Air Tour Management Plans (ATMP). The Volpe Center has supported FAA and NPS in meeting the environmental directives of both of these acts.
In FY 2008, Volpe Center staff supported the FAA Western-Pacific Region, the Office of Environment and Energy, and the NPS Natural Sounds Program by: (1) developing a national guidance document for measuring and analyzing ambient noise in low-level environments, such as National Parks, with appropriate methodology and procedures for establishing benchmark ambient conditions for different park settings; (2) researching advanced methodologies to enhance modeling of the effects of terrain and meteorology on sound propagation in FAA's AEDT; (3) initiating expansion of the AEDT noise database to include three common air-tour aircraft, the Piper PA-42 fixed-wing aircraft, the Bell 407 helicopter, and the Schweizer 300C helicopter, through an aircraft noise measurement program; and (4) performing baseline ambient sound-level measurements at Death Valley National Park, Cape Hatteras National Seashore, BiscayneNational Park, and Big CypressNational Preserve. (Sponsored by DOT/FAA & NPS)
Tire-Pavement Noise and Quiet Pavements Applications
Between 1983 and 2004, $3.4 billion was spent on the construction of highway noise barriers along U.S. roadways. Budget-conscious state DOTs, along with the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), are researching innovative highway-noise-abatement technologies that go beyond barrier construction. Development of Quiet Pavements technologies has emerged as one of the more promising technologies. With tire-pavement interaction being the dominant source of vehicle noise at highway speeds, the use of quiet pavements for noise abatement is an important area of research. The Volpe Center has been extensively involved with national and international tire-pavement noise research.
In FY 2008, the Volpe Center supported the Quiet Pavements Program by (1) helping to guide research plans and field measurements for several states, (2) participating in expert panels to help guide projects for the National Cooperative Highway Research Program, (3) participating in the development of standard practices for tire-pavement noise measurements, and (4) conducting noise-measurement research to help quantify the benefits of quiet pavements. (Sponsored by DOT/FHWA & State of Arizona DOT)
Carbon Sequestration along Highway Rights of Way: Piloting a Concept
As threats of climate change become increasingly understood, states and the Federal government are exploring ways to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide (CO2). Some states now require their agencies to measure and reduce their emissions, and the Federal government may soon do the same. The method likely to be selected is emissions trading, or "cap and trade," which requires entities that do not reduce emissions to a certain level to buy emissions "credits" from those that emit less than the allowed amount.
Because vegetation naturally captures, or "sequesters," CO2 from the air, state transportation agencies have an opportunity to reduce their total emissions and even to earn revenue by changing vegetation-management practices in state-DOT-owned rights of way (ROW). To explore this potential, the Volpe Center has been working with FHWA's Office of Natural and Human Environment to conduct a Carbon Sequestration Pilot Project. The goals are to quantify the amount of carbon that can be sequestered with use of native vegetation management on DOT lands and to estimate the revenue that could be generated through the sale of "carbon credits" on an emissions trading market. Marketable carbon credits could include not only carbon sequestered in plants but also emissions reductions resulting from reduced mowing and other management actions.
The Volpe Center team developed a framework for selecting a pilot test state, interviewed potential participants, and visited top-tier candidates. The State of New Mexico Department of Transportation (NMDOT) was selected for the pilot on the basis of total DOT-owned ROW acreage and the state's existing commitment to CO2 emissions reductions. The Volpe Center is now helping NMDOT to quantify and verify the acreages available for carbon sequestration and to estimate the vegetation costs and potential value of marketable credits. The pilot project is expected to substantially assist NMDOT in meeting its emissions-reduction goals while helping it save on fuel costs from mowing and generate revenue by selling credits for its qualifying ROW. The results, which will be shared with Division offices and state DOTs, could help to inform future transportation and climate change legislation. FHWA may expand the pilot program to include other states. (Sponsored by DOT/FHWA)
Safety of Next Generation Plastic-and-Composite-Intensive Vehicles (PCIVs)
For the last three years, the Volpe Center has performed research for the National Highway Transportation Safety Administration (NHTSA) to ensure the safety of the emerging generation of lightweight, fuel-efficient vehicles. In response to congressional guidance and global pressure to improve vehicles' energy efficiency while protecting safety and sustainability, NHTSA turned to the Volpe Center to explore the potential safety benefits of using plastics and composites.
Initial Volpe Center research is summarized in a 2007 report, A Safety Roadmap for Future Plastics and Composites Intensive Vehicles (PCIVs), posted online at http://www.nhtsa.dot.gov/staticfiles/DOT/NHTSA/NRD/Multimedia/Crashworthiness/4680PCIV_SafetyRoadmap-Nov2007.pdf. The report evaluates the potential safety benefits of PCIVs and identifies crash-safety research needs and priorities to enable the deployment of these systems by 2020.
In a follow-on research effort, the Volpe Center organized and hosted an August 2008 workshop on PCIVs. The workshop convened 50 subject-matter experts and stakeholders who shared insights and provided inputs on key research priorities for characterizing and quantifying the safety benefits of advanced plastics and composite materials for PCIVs. The summary and presentations from the proceedings, posted online at http://www.volpe.dot.gov/safety/pciv/docs/summary_pciv_workshop.pdf, will assist NHTSA and the Volpe Center in targeting research resources to address knowledge gaps in modeling and standards for testing the crashworthiness of composite materials, and in leveraging ongoing research partnerships in government, industry, and academia. (Sponsored by DOT/NHTSA)
Transportation in an Age of Volatile Oil Prices
The Volpe Center recently developed a critical report on the volatility of global oil prices and their effect on the national transportation enterprise for the Administrator of the Research and Innovative Technology Administration.
Oil prices have been highly unstable for the past three decades with recent prices akin to a rollercoaster ride, nearly tripling from about $50 per barrel in early 2007 to nearly $140 per barrel in mid-July 2008 and back to around $45 per barrel by December 2008. Oil price forecasts show these wide variations for the near term as well.
The graph shows oil price volatility since 2000 as well as projections of future prices through 2030. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides these projections of future prices, which vary significantly based on model assumptions.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and countries with national oil companies control most of the world's oil reserves. Given the political instability of some of the oil-rich countries, many plausible scenarios exist in which civil or political unrest might seriously disrupt oil supply. America holds only about 2 percent of world oil reserves. All these issues factor into the EIA cases.
Over the past year, Americans have reacted to high fuel prices by driving less and using public transit more. Motor vehicle miles traveled appreciably declined after continuously increasing for nearly four decades. Additionally, logistic chains in most industries are being shortened and in some cases manufacturing facilities are being relocated to the U.S. from abroad. Profits for freight modes decreased with higher fuel costs; as a result, nearly 1,000 trucking companies went bankrupt in the first quarter of 2008 alone.
The report developed by the Volpe Center is helping to shape discussions of the future of the transportation enterprise in the United States. ((Sponsored by DOT/RITA)
Federal Fuel Economy Standards: Analysis to Support Major Regulatory Reforms
Since the mid 1970s, NHTSA has been issuing and implementing Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards that have reduced the Nation's dependence on foreign oil, conserved petroleum, reduced carbon dioxide emissions, and saved consumers money by reducing fuel costs. Pursuant to the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA), which became law in December 2007, NHTSA issued a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) in May 2007 and is currently working toward issuing a final CAFE rule. EISA tasked NHTSA with setting separate maximum feasible fuel economy standards for both passenger cars and light trucks that yielded a combined fleet fuel economy average at or above 35 miles per gallon (mpg) by model year (MY) 2020.
In 2008, the Volpe Center performed significant underlying analytical work to continue support for NHTSA's CAFE rulemaking activities. The Volpe Center team played a vital role in the modeling and analysis used to develop the NPRM standards and is continuing that role in the forthcoming final rule standards. Volpe Center experts were part of a technical team that assessed the estimates of the availability, applicability, and incremental effectiveness and cost of fuel-saving technologies. The team was also involved in analyzing manufacturer product plan data (used as a forecast of the future vehicle market), as well as economic factors such as estimates of vehicle survival, mileage accumulation patterns, the rebound effect, future fuel prices, and the social cost of carbon.
The Center developed a computer model to further aid in the formulation and evaluation of potential CAFE standards. The model is a Windows-based desktop application that uses market data, technology estimates, and economic parameters to estimate the ability of each manufacturer to apply additional technologies in response to potential future CAFE standards. The model evaluates the costs, effects (e.g., saved fuel and reduced emissions), and monetized benefits of these additional technologies, and can be used to estimate the stringency at which specified benefit-cost criteria are satisfied. NHTSA has used (and continues to use) the Volpe Center model as a tool to inform its consideration of potential standards. In November 2008, the DOT Fuel Economy Team, including six Volpe Center employees, was awarded the U.S. Department of Transportation's Gold Medal—the highest award granted by the Secretary of Transportation. (Sponsored by DOT/NHTSA)
Research and Innovative Technology Administration Hydrogen and Alternative Fuels Program
In an effort to support efforts to break the Nation's dependence on oil, the Volpe Center drafted the U.S. DOT Alternative Fuels Roadmap (AFRM). Released in January 2009, AFRM outlines potential alternative fuel sources and identifies activities within all offices and administrations at DOT in support of alternative fuels for transportation as well as future considerations needed. Established to act as a baseline reference and starting point for the DOT to monitor and react to developments and technological breakthroughs within the energy transportation sector, AFRM aims to act as a vehicle for DOT to harmonize crossmodal programs and projects in order to achieve energy independence while reducing transportation energy use and its impact on the environment.
In addition to the strategic high-level drafting of AFRM, the Volpe Center supported two highly successful outreach events. Hydrogen Drive 2008 took place in Sacramento, CA in March and enabled local and national media and interested parties to experience hydrogen-powered vehicles from major automotive manufacturers in real-world operation. The event concluded with a roundtable discussion which included officials from RITA, the U.S. Department of Energy, the California Air Resources Board, local Sacramento area government and transit agencies, and representatives from the automobile industry. Hydrogen Drive 2008 was followed up by Hydrogen Road Tour 2008, a 13-day, 31-stop event covering 18 states and stretching from Maine to California. The road tour included nine different automotive original equipment manufacturer (OEM) vehicles which were driven cross country in an effort to increase awareness for hydrogen and hydrogen-powered vehicles. The Volpe Center provided the planning, logistics support, and staffing for this series of events.
Additionally, the Volpe Center provided support for RITA's leadership of and participation in several committees and working groups including the Biomass Research and Development Board (Distribution Infrastructure Interagency Working Group), the Hydrogen Fuels Initiative Coordination Group, the Interagency Working Group on Hydrogen and Fuel Cells, the Federal Interagency Working Group on Alternative Fuels, the California Fuel Cell Partnership, the Hydrogen Technical Advisory Committee (which included drafting of white papers and presentations), the International Partnership for a Hydrogen Economy Standards, Codes and Regulations subcommittee, the Rail Energy Transportation Advisory Committee, the Southeast Alternative Fuels Task Force and groups within the DOT including the Alternative Fuels Council and Hydrogen Working Group.
Presentations by Volpe Center personnel were made to the Interagency Biomass Research and Development Board, the California Energy Commission, the University Transportation Centers, and the U.S. Council for Automotive Research. The Volpe Center also administered and awarded contracts in support of alternative fuels research to the National Association of State Fire Marshalls, and the University of California at Davis Sustainable Transportation Energy Pathways program. (Sponsored by DOT/RITA)
Environmental Cleanup Program
FAA must comply with Federal and state legislation that was enacted to protect the public from exposure to hazardous materials. FAA's Environmental Cleanup Program (ECU) oversees the Agency's implementation of these environmental laws and policies. FAA ECU created the Environmental Site Cleanup Report (ESCR) to track and report on the progress of contaminated FAA sites throughout the United States.
The Volpe Center supports FAA's Eastern Service Area (ESA) by annually updating the ESCR for all contaminated sites in the legacy New England and Eastern regions. Additionally in FY08, Volpe Center staff completed four preliminary assessments and four site investigations at properties listed in the ESCR. The Volpe Center then worked with state regulators to facilitate site closure at two of the sites where a site investigation was performed.
In 2009, Volpe Center staff will continue to support FAA ESA and will perform seven preliminary assessments, oversee three site investigations, and perform remediation activities at two facilities. (Sponsored by DOT/FAA)