BACKGROUND
This vision document is intended to summarize what a future transportation system might look like in the period around 2020, and provide some general indications about where transportation possibly may be headed in the 10-20 years thereafter. It is based on optimistic assumptions about (1) availability of Federal funding for transportation research, technology development, and implementation, (2) success in the conduct of enabling research, and (3) effective public-private partnership arrangements to help deploy new technology. This document does not assume, for the most part, significant breakthroughs in energy production technologies. It is not intended to be a specific technology forecast, but to provide a vision of the types of transportation services which might be useful in that time period, based on trends we see today, and some of the most promising technological opportunities for delivering new or needed services. In the process, it will set forth some possible enabling research activities which could lead to the kinds of needed systems.
This vision for the nation’s transportation system is based on an environmental scan and trend analysis, originally undertaken to support development of the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Strategic Plan 1 and the NSTC Transportation Science and Technology Strategy 2. This assessment took into account the elements of today’s transportation system; socio-economic and demographic
forces shaping transportation demand and supply; and, the likely roles, responsibilities, and resources of the government and its transportation stakeholders. This trend analysis provided the basis to anticipate future transportation needs and technology-based solutions.
Because of the time required to deploy or upgrade major infrastructure improvements, the transportation enterprise has considerable inertia: long lead times are required to plan, develop and effect systemic changes. Many of the capabilities described in this document may require time to achieve widespread deployment.
The vision and goals for Federal transportation programs are articulated in the Department’s Strategic Plan, and other transportation-related documents like the NSTC Transportation Science and Technology Strategy, and its implementation documents, the NSTC Transportation Technology Plan 3 and NSTC Transportation Strategic Research Plan 4. Together with the key socio-economic and environmental trends and goals summarized below, these plans will drive forward-looking transportation policies and programs for the 21st century.
Questions may be raised about the time period in which specific technologies mature. Appendix A summarizes a technology forecast conducted by The George Washington University which highlights the specific time frames in which advanced technologies will become available. 5
When dealing with long-term visions, it is especially important to avoid being constrained by current technologies and contemporary thinking. For example, in 1863 Jules Verne wrote the novel Paris in the Twentieth Century. Set in 1960, the novel forecast such modern inventions as automobiles, automated urban rail systems, electric lights, computers, calculators, fax machines, and electrified musical instruments. His publisher, Pierre-Jules Hetzel, flatly rejected the work, observing that, "No one today will believe your prophecy." In 1989, Verne’s manuscript was re-discovered, and published as a "lost novel," selling two hundred thousand copies in its first year in print. The ultimate validation of Verne’s "unbelievable" vision underlines the importance of keeping a long-term perspective in making long term forecasts. 6
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